Weatherford, TX — In a moment charged with political upheaval and grassroots revolt, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke is once again flirting with a return to the U.S. Senate campaign trail.

Speaking at a town hall in Denton in recent weeks, O’Rourke declined to rule out a 2026 bid, fueling speculation that he may challenge the Republican nominee in what is already shaping up to be the most volatile Senate race Texas has seen in years.

Cornyn under fire

Senator John Cornyn, once a fixture of the Texas GOP establishment, is now facing an outright revolt from within his own party.

His first re-election bid since 2014 is off to a grim start, with polling showing him trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by double digits in the upcoming 2026 Republican primary.

The slide began in 2022, when Cornyn co-authored the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a federal gun control measure that incentivized red flag laws.

The legislation was praised by the Biden White House as “the most significant gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years”.

But for gun owners and constitutional conservatives, it was seen as a betrayal.

Cornyn was met with loud boos at the 2022 Texas GOP Convention and has never recovered his grassroots credibility.

His political capital further eroded after his failed 2024 run for Senate Majority Leader, a defeat largely chalked up to his stance on gun rights and establishment affiliations.

Paxton’s rise — and Cornyn’s polling nightmare

Attorney General Ken Paxton, long a champion of Texas conservatives, officially entered the Senate race in May, buoyed by widespread grassroots support and a record of aggressively defending Second Amendment rights.

But it was the polling — and Cornyn’s reaction to it — that drew national attention.

In early 2025, Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio released internal numbers showing Paxton with a commanding lead over Cornyn, even before Paxton officially entered the race.

But earlier this month, Cornyn announced he had hired Fabrizio himself — a move many speculated was intended to sideline the Trump-aligned strategist and control the narrative.

That strategy backfired.

A follow-up poll from the Republican Leadership Fund reaffirmed Fabrizio’s earlier findings: Cornyn is deeply underwater with GOP primary voters.

The hire intended to neutralize the threat only validated it.

Trump and Cruz stay neutral — for now

President Trump, when asked about the contest, described both Cornyn and Paxton as “good friends” and expressed regret that they were running against each other.

However, he added that he would make an endorsement “when the time is right”.

Senator Ted Cruz, whose own seat was defended against Beto O’Rourke in 2018, has declined to take sides in the race, maintaining neutrality as tensions between the establishment and grassroots wings of the party escalate.

Meanwhile, Texas Gun Rights has unleashed a direct grassroots campaign urging Trump not to endorse Cornyn.

The open letter denounces Cornyn’s record on gun control and quickly garnered thousands of signatures.

Within its first week, it spread organically across social media, reaching hundreds of thousands of Texas gun owners.

Democrats circle the chaos

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are watching the GOP divide with interest.

Beto O’Rourke’s possible entry into the race has sparked cautious optimism among Texas Democrats who see a rare opportunity in a fractured Republican Party.

Though O’Rourke has come up short in past campaigns against Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott, his high name ID and fundraising ability make him a perennial contender.

Still, the story of 2026 may not be about a Democratic opportunity — but a conservative reckoning.

Grassroots Republicans and gun owners have made it clear: they’re finished with compromise.

Cornyn may have Washington credentials, but in Texas, the Second Amendment still decides elections.