According to the survey, conducted by The Tarrance Group from April 27 to May 1, Paxton leads Cornyn by a staggering 16 points, with Paxton at 56% and Cornyn trailing at just 40%. It’s a devastating blow — made worse by the fact that it comes from Cornyn’s own corner.

Even more troubling for Cornyn, the poll tested a hypothetical three-way primary including rising star Rep. Wesley Hunt.

The Fabrizio Factor: A Gamble That Backfired

This poll landed just after Paxton publicly announced that he had hired Tony Fabrizio, the renowned Trump pollster of Fabrizio Lee & Associates, to join his senior campaign team.

Fabrizio, who conducted some of the earliest and most explosive polling showing Paxton crushing Cornyn by double digits long before Paxton entered the race, had been conspicuously quiet for months — until now.

Many political observers now suspect Cornyn’s inner circle tried to buy Fabrizio off — or sideline his influence early — by bringing him close, only to have that move backfired spectacularly.

The SLF poll — despite being from Cornyn’s own allies — mirrored Fabrizio’s initial numbers almost exactly.

Gun Control’s Cost: The Red Flag That Won’t Go Away

Cornyn’s collapse isn’t just about personalities. It’s policy — especially gun rights.

In 2022, Cornyn was booed off stage by delegates at the Texas GOP Convention after co-authoring the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act with Democrats.

That legislation paved the way for red flag gun confiscation orders by handing hundreds of millions in federal dollars to states willing to enact them.

Cornyn never recovered with Texas conservatives.

When the GOP considered new Senate leadership last year, his poor standing with the party base — especially on gun rights — kept him from securing the nod, opting to go with Senator John Thune instead.

Now, this is the first time Cornyn has faced a serious primary challenge in his lengthy career — and it shows.

By contrast, Paxton enters the race as a statewide conservative icon with a pro-gun record, a grassroots army, and proven fundraising muscle.

His legal fights against the Biden administration, his relentless posture in defense of the Second Amendment, and his deep name ID across Texas make him a formidable threat to the establishment.

“Cornyn is underwater with the people who used to be his base,” said one Texas GOP strategist. “Paxton’s not just winning — he’s dominating.”

Wesley Hunt: The Wild Card

Meanwhile, Rep. Wesley Hunt continues to float as a possible third entrant into the race.

If Hunt runs, his presence would almost certainly pull support from both the establishment wing of the Republican Party — hoping to avoid an embarrassing defeat — and the anti-Cornyn vote, potentially forcing a runoff.

Hunt’s appeal to both suburban conservatives and national GOP donors makes him a wildcard.

Senior adviser Matt Mackowiak emphasized Cornyn’s long record of victories and his 99% voting alignment with Donald Trump during Trump’s presidency — a claim many grassroots conservatives see as too little, too late.

Before the release of the latest SLF poll, State Senator Paul Bettencourt, a key conservative voice in Texas, commented on Cornyn’s chances “If I was an incumbent senator with these types of polling numbers, I probably wouldn’t run because you can’t win.”

A New Era in Texas Politics?

For two decades, John Cornyn coasted through elections with little more than token opposition.

With Ken Paxton now leading the charge, and Cornyn’s own backers ringing alarm bells, the 2026 primary could mark the end of the Bush-era GOP establishment in Texas — and the rise of a harder-edged, liberty-first conservative movement.

Cornyn may still have the edge in establishment cash. But in today’s Republican Party — especially in Texas — it’s the grassroots, not K Street, that decides the future.

And right now, the grassroots are standing with anyone but Cornyn.