Turnout Trends Are Shifting FAST
There’s no question that 2026 is not a routine primary year.
Across major Texas counties — including Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis — early voting in both parties is surging compared to previous cycles, especially among Democratic voters.
In some of these areas, turnout is up more than 50% compared to 2022 and 2024 — and Democrats are leading early vote totals in longtime GOP territory.
That’s significant.
Even partisan analysts are reporting scenarios where Democrat turnout is outpacing Republican participation in battleground counties that historically leaned GOP — a trend that cannot be ignored.
If there were ever a wake-up call for the pro-gun movement, it came in Texas Senate District 9.
This district voted for Donald Trump by an astounding 17-point margin in 2024 — a deep-red stronghold.
And yet, in a low-turnout special election runoff, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by more than 14 points, and was just sworn into office this week.
Let that sink in:
A district that Trump won by double digits flipped to a Democrat — not by a hair, but by a 14-point margin — in an election where barely 15% of registered voters bothered to cast ballots.
Analysts show Democrats didn’t just win from crossover votes — long-ignored Democratic and independent voters showed up in force.
This wasn’t “a one-off.”
It was a structural red flag pointing to what is possible in November if pro-gun voters don’t turn out at scale.
Turnout Determines Outcomes — Not Polls
Look at the data: Republicans once dominated early voting margins by huge numbers, but that lead has eroded, and in some counties has flipped entirely.
Across Texas, voters are energized — both Republican and Democrat. But where Democrats are currently firing on all cylinders, GOP turnout is inconsistent, sluggish, or simply not keeping pace with the enthusiasm seen on the left.
And that’s a problem.
Because when turnout lags, the base that cares most — and most reliably shows up — decides the outcome. That’s exactly what happened in SD-9.
Gun Rights Can’t Be Taken for Granted
Republicans are projected to only narrowly beat Democrats in many matchups — and that’s assuming turnout doesn’t slip further.
That means the pro-gun vote cannot afford complacency.
Republican infighting, hedged messaging, and competing primary narratives all weaken the overall turnout surge that the GOP needs to secure victory in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats are doubling down on fundraising, investing heavily in turnout operations, and energizing voters who feel ignored or left out — especially in urban and suburban areas.
The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher
If gun owners stay home, we won’t just lose a seat here or there — we risk losing control of key statewide races, and handing momentum to anti-gun lawmakers who want to pass “red flag” gun confiscation laws, erode concealed carry rights, and undermine the Second Amendment at every turn.
Texas has long been a conservative stronghold. But recent data and election results make one thing clear:
No victory is guaranteed.
No turnout advantage is permanent.
Results are earned — not assumed.
Pro-2A voters need to see tangible victories — in the legislature and in the courtroom.
Not just speeches.
Not just tweets.
Results.
