The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is tightening on both sides of the aisle — and the latest polling makes one thing unmistakably clear: the gun vote will decide November.
New surveys from J.L. Partners and the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston show competitive Republican and Democrat primaries, energized bases, and a general election shaping up to be far closer than many Republicans are comfortable admitting.
Democrat Primary: Two Extremists, One Outcome
On the Democrat side, state Rep. Jasmine Crockett has opened an 8-point lead over fellow state Rep. James Talarico, according to the Hobby School’s latest poll of likely Democratic voters.
Crockett also holds higher favorability ratings, signaling growing consolidation among Democrat activists.
While the two candidates differ in style, the policy outcome is the same: both are hard-left extremists who would support virtually any radical gun grab that crosses their desk — from bans and registration schemes to expanded federal enforcement powers.
Whichever Democrat emerges will be fully aligned with the national gun confiscation agenda.
Republican Primary: Tight Race, High Stakes
On the Republican side, polling shows a competitive and unsettled field.
A J.L. Partners poll released last week found a near three-way contest, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow edge over U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt and Sen. John Cornyn, and more than 20% of voters still undecided.
The Hobby School poll paints a similar picture, with Paxton leading at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, and Hunt at 17%, again with a sizable bloc of undecided voters.
Either scenario likely results in a runoff — and underscores how fluid the race remains.
What separates the candidates most clearly is their record on the Second Amendment.
Both Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt have returned the Texas Gun Rights Candidate Survey 100% pro-gun, pledging to defend the Second Amendment without compromise.
That includes committing to repeal John Cornyn’s gun control and undo the damage caused by the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.
Paxton, in particular, brings a proven record, having earned a reputation as the most pro-gun Attorney General in America, defending constitutional carry, fighting gun bans in court, and repeatedly standing up to the Biden ATF.
November Will Be Close — and Turnout Will Decide It
Despite Texas’s Republican lean, early indicators suggest that any Republican nominee would only narrowly defeat the Democrat in November.
That makes turnout — especially among gun owners — absolutely critical.
Recent history offers a stark warning: when gun owners stay home or lose confidence, gun-ban politicians win.
Democrats know this.
Billionaire activist George Soros has already personally donated millions of dollars to Texas Majority PAC, an organization explicitly focused on flipping Texas blue.
Meanwhile, figures like Beto O’Rourke continue to crisscross the state, raising money and stumping for gun-ban candidates up and down the ballot.
The Left is organized, funded, and motivated.
Whether gun owners match that intensity will determine the outcome.
The message from the polling is clear: Texas gun owners cannot afford complacency.
November will not be won by half-measures or lukewarm candidates, but by unapologetic fighters willing to stand their ground when the gun confiscation lobby comes calling.
Texas Gun Rights is ramping up efforts now to educate and mobilize pro-gun Texans ahead of November.
Chip below to help Texas Gun Rights hold the line for the Second Amendment and stop the gun ban agenda at the ballot box.
